The trade deadline passed and we now have a clearer picture of how teams will operate in the 2023 offseason. Last July after the free agency dust settled, we got a rough idea of which teams were projected to have significant cap space. For the most part, the teams remain the same, but the quality of free agents has decreased with many high-profile players signing veteran extensions since. It’s possible the lack of talent could push more teams to roll over their cap space into the season like the Pacers and Spurs did this year. It’s also possible we get more extensions before June 30, which could push more of these teams to operate as over-the-cap teams instead.

Here are the teams that project to have cap space, operate over the cap, and which of the latter are projected to be in the luxury tax.

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Cap Space Projection: $56-60 million
Roster Count: 13 players (including two first-round picks)

The Rockets are set to have the most cap space this offseason after their deadline moves. That projection could decrease if they were to extend KJ Martin to a new deal with a higher starting salary that would replace his $1.9 million team option for next season. This would prevent him from entering unrestricted free agency in 2024, but they’d still have more than enough cap space for this summer.

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Cap Space Projection: $39-47 million
Roster Count: 11 players (including one first-round pick)

The Spurs project to have maximum cap space this offseason despite taking on the salaries of Devonte Graham and Khem Birch into next season. This space could further be reduced if Tre Jones, their lone extension-eligible player remaining for this season, agrees to a long-term deal. If that happens, they should still have more than enough space to act as dumping ground for bad contracts with picks attached.

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Cap Space Projection: $30-45 million
Roster Count: 13 players (including three first-round picks)

The Jazz are currently projected to generate around $30 million if Jordan Clarkson, Talen Horton-Tucker, Rudy Gay, and Damian Jones all exercise their player options. Clarkson is probably the biggest variable in their cap space projection. He seems like the most likely candidate of the group listed above to decline his player option and become a free agent. If they re-sign him to a long-term deal with a raise over his $14.3 million player option amount, they should still have around $25 million in cap space. If he opts out and leaves the Jazz, they could be looking at $45 million in cap space.

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Cap Space Projection: $28-35 million
Roster Count: 15 players (including one first-round pick)

The Thunder are set to have maximum cap space with a ton of dead money set to come off their books this summer. They’ve operated as a pseudo cap space team over the years by taking on bad money with picks attached, but perhaps they will look to add an impact player with real cap space at hand. They already project to have a full roster but have four players on non-guaranteed contracts. If they were to waive them all, they would increase their cap space projection to $35 million.

(Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

Cap Space Projection: $27 million
Roster Count: 12 players (including one first-round pick)

The Pistons are projected to generate $27 million in cap space this summer if they decline the team option of Nerlens Noel, who could see his contract end earlier via a buyout this year. They could actually get to $37 million in cap space but that would require them to decline Alec Burks’ team option, which seems unlikely. After what will be four straight seasons in the lottery, they could look to make a splash in free agency and take the next step toward the play-in next season. They could use another wing player after trading Saddiq Bey to the Hawks last week.

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Cap Space Projection: $27 million
Roster Count: 15 players (including three first-round picks)

Indiana’s three-year, $60 million renegotiation and extension with Myles Turner helped preserve significant cap space for this summer since it kept his cap hit for next season at a low $20.9 million. They could look to do the same with Buddy Hield this offseason if they don’t have many plans with their cap space. If they do have bigger plans, they could look to generate more by getting off contracts like TJ McConnell and Daniel Theis.

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Cap Space Projection: $19-58 million
Roster Count: 13 players (including two first-round picks)

The Magic can generate up to $58 million in cap space but that would require waiving all their non-guaranteed players, including Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris, and Bol Bol. Without waiving anyone, they could get to $19 million in cap space and slightly more if they decline Goga Bitadze’s $2.1 million team option for next season. Alternatively, they could re-sign Mo Wagner to a significant raise and operate as an over-the-cap team again, giving them access to the $11.4 million non-taxpayer MLE instead.

(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 13 players (including two first-round picks)

The Hornets can generate up to $35 million in cap space but that would require renouncing restricted free agents like Miles Bridges and PJ Washington. They seem more likely to operate as an over-the-cap team unless they can get off significant salaries like Gordon Hayward or Terry Rozier. They can re-sign all their top free agents and use the mid-level exception while staying below the luxury tax for next season.

(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 10 players (including one first-round pick)

The Kings are projected to be an over-the-cap team provided they extend or re-sign Harrison Barnes to a new long-term deal. If he walks, they could generate around $22 million in cap space, which may not be enough to replace him in such a dry market for wing players. If they wanted to go after a younger option at forward like Jerami Grant or Kyle Kuzma, they could generate more cap space if they’re able to get off Richaun Holmes’ contract.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 11 players (including two first-round picks)

The Trail Blazers project to have a little north of $40 million in room below the luxury tax. The trades of Josh Hart and Gary Payton II gave them enough flexibility to re-sign Jerami Grant this summer to a contract higher than the four-year, $112.7 million extension he is currently eligible for. Portland can now comfortably re-sign him and potentially both Cam Reddish and Matisse Thybulle while staying below next year’s tax.

(Photo by Harrison Barden/Getty Images)

Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 11 players

The Timberwolves project to be $18 million below next year’s luxury tax with 11 players on the roster. They have flexibility to re-sign free agents Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell and use the non-taxpayer MLE, but probably not all three. This could be Minnesota’s last year under the tax before Karl-Anthony Towns’ supermax deal kicks in and Anthony Edwards presumably signs a maximum extension this summer.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: Nine players

The Cavaliers project to be $37 million below next year’s luxury tax with nine players on the roster. That should give them enough space to extend or re-sign top free agents like Kevin Love and Caris LeVert and use the non-taxpayer MLE.

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: Nine players

The Bulls project to be $42 million below next year’s luxury tax but that is without factoring in potential new deals for Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu, and Javonte Green. It’s possible they can re-sign all three players and use the non-taxpayer MLE while staying below the tax. If they were to hit the reset button and trade Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, that could put them in a position to generate maximum cap space to jump-start a rebuild.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 15 players (including one first-round pick)

The Grizzlies roster is all but set going into next season with their main objective being making a decision on Dillon Brooks. They are $15 million below next year’s luxury tax and a new contract for Brooks can eat that space up. They could re-sign him and make subsequent moves to duck the tax, or potentially aggregate his salary in a future trade for one of their reported wing targets like Mikal Bridges or OG Anunoby.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 14 players (including one first-round pick)

The Knicks project to be slightly over the luxury tax next season if they pick up the $15.6 million team option for Derrick Rose. Declining it would put them 12 million below with 13 players, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility they pick it up. That $15.6 million salary could come in handy in a potential trade for the next available All-Star. If they can acquire one without giving up any key rotation players, it might be worth paying the tax for.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 13 players (including one first-round pick)

The Wizards will head into the offseason roughly $60 million below the luxury tax assuming both Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma decline their player options. Washington’s offseason objective will largely consist of re-signing both players as well as a 14th player within that budget. If both players were to leave, that could open up around $30 million in cap space for this summer.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 14 players (including one first-round pick)

The Pelicans are projected to be right on the luxury tax line assuming the first-round pick they end up with is in the middle of the first round. However, that is before waiving the non-guaranteed $5.4 million salary of Garrett Temple, which would keep them under. They could get a little more wiggle room to potentially use a portion of the MLE if they also decline the team option of Willy Hernangomez. But with the roster mostly full, don’t expect major moves for the Pelicans outside of a trade.

Spencer Windiddie, Brooklyn Nets

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 13 players (including two first-round picks)

The Nets are heading into the offseason roughly $11 million below the luxury tax with nearly a full roster. However, that doesn’t factor in a new contract for restricted free agent Cameron Johnson, which would likely put them over the tax. Look for the Nets to make a subsequent cost-cutting move to accommodate a new deal for Johnson while avoiding the repeater tax, such as trading Joe Harris, Royce O’Neal, or Patty Mills.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, non-taxpaying team
Roster Count: 15 players (including one first-round pick)

The Hawks are projected to be $12 million over the luxury tax heading into the offseason with a full roster. Unless they go on a huge run and win a playoff series or two, it seems unlikely the organization will want to pay what would be a penalty north of $20 million. If they want to avoid the tax next season, they will need to trade one of their eight highest-paid players, which could include John Collins or Bogdan Bogdanovic.

(Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 13 players (including one first-round pick)

The Raptors could be looking at a modest luxury tax payment in the $25 million range if they re-sign all of Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, and Gary Trent Jr. to new deals this offseason. The organization zigged while everyone else in the league expected them to zag, and it looks like they will give their core one more chance to save the season before looking to be sellers. Toronto could re-sign all these players and then make subsequent moves to duck the tax if the team doesn’t meet expectations.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 10 players

The Nuggets are expected to be taxpayers from here on out with Nikola Jokic’s supermax deal set to kick in. Denver is likely looking at a tax penalty in the $30 million range if they use the taxpayer MLE and even more if they’re able to re-sign Bruce Brown.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: Eight players

The Mavericks are expected to be taxpayers assuming they re-sign Kyrie Irving and fill out the roster. After giving up so much for him, they likely need to maximize spending, which could include extending Christian Wood and Dwight Powell and using the taxpayer MLE on top of re-signing Irving. Such moves could give Dallas a tax penalty in the $40 million range, and even higher if they make a consolidation trade for upgrades.

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: Eight players (including one first-round pick)

The Lakers have the option to waive all their non-guaranteed players for next season and generate $30 million in cap space instead. However, that option would decimate their depth, an issue that plagued their roster these past two years. Look for the Lakers to build upon their newfound depth and operate as an over-the-cap team this summer. They are set to become repeat taxpayers this season and if they maximize their spending, their tax penalty could range from as much as $65 million to $90 million.

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 10 players

The Heat are already projected to be taxpayers with just 10 players on the roster. If they maximize their spending, which includes re-signing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, and using the taxpayer MLE, they could have a tax penalty north of $100 million. If they’re going to pay that much for a team, they might be more willing to do so if they can trade the salaries of Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson for more productive players.

Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 12 players

The Celtics are projected to be significant taxpayers again next season, but are set to have a smaller penalty compared to this season thanks to Al Horford’s $16.5 million pay cut for next season. Their roster is already mostly set with 12 players under contract assuming they keep Mike Muscala and Sam Hauser. Their biggest decisions for the offseason include re-signing restricted free agent Grant Williams and potentially using the taxpayer MLE.

(Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 10 players

The Sixers are expected to be taxpayers next season with Joel Embiid’s supermax set to kick in and James Harden in play for a raise if he declines his $35.6 million player option. Thankfully, they already have most of their roster set so they shouldn’t have any issues putting together a deep roster. If they maximize their spending, which could include re-signing Harden to a maximum salary, re-signing Jalen McDaniels, and using the taxpayer MLE, their tax penalty could exceed $75 million.

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 6 players

The Suns have their work cut out for them towards building a deep roster. They are slightly into the tax for next season with just six players under contract. Their largest means to improving the roster will be the $7 million taxpayer MLE, which means they’ll probably need to re-sign several of their own free agents like Darius Bazley, Torrey Craig, and Jock Landale. These are players with sufficient Bird rights that the Suns could re-sign to more than the minimum, making them potential tradeable salaries in the future. If that’s not enough, they could also consider moving one of Deandre Ayton or Chris Paul for additional depth.

Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: Eight players

The Bucks are expected to be taxpayers again next season and enter the repeater tax. Khris Middleton has a $40.4 million player option which, if exercised, would put the Bucks roughly $5 million below the tax with just six players under contract. They will in all likelihood be significant taxpayers if they re-sign key guys like Brook Lopez, Jae Crowder, Joe Ingles, and utilize the taxpayer MLE. Milwaukee could be looking at a luxury tax projection north of $175 million if they maximize their spending.

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 13 players (including one first-round pick)

The Warriors are projected to have a luxury tax payment north of $270 million if Draymond Green and Donte DiVincenzo exercise their respective player option. Their acquisition of Gary Payton II could be them getting prepared for DiVincenzo to decline his option and walk. That would save them roughly $40 million if they don’t use the taxpayer MLE to replace him. The Warriors are likely to remain taxpayers next season since Green opting out and leaving would still keep them significantly over the tax.

Kawhi Leonard handling the ball

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Projected Operation: Over the cap, taxpaying team
Roster Count: 14 players (including one first-round pick)

The Clippers roster is all but set for next season with 14 players under contract. They are set to enter the repeater tax and are projected with a $190 million luxury tax payment without doing anything. That would make for a league-record $376 million roster. That projection is before potentially re-signing Mason Plumlee or using the taxpayer MLE, both of which would raise their tax by an additional $100 million. While the Clippers have always maximized spending in the last four seasons, could spending limits be made if they don’t have a deep playoff run this postseason?