Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.
A new week on the PGA Tour and another completely different set of challenges. The Farmers Insurance Open is played at the famed Torrey Pines facility. This 36-hole picturesque municipal landscape is one LONG test of golf. The major championship-hosting South Course stretches out to 7,765 yards. The scorecard reads par 72, but there are two par 5s over 600 yards, three par 3s over 200 yards and seven par 4s measuring over 450 yards.
The sister North Course is 507 yards shorter and still stretches over 7,200 yards. Less of a test, this course is the key to scoring when you play the Farmers. The average winning score over the last 10 years is 13 under par. Considering most winners accumulate about half of that total in one round on the North, keep a watchful eye on those players who score well there for in-play betting purposes.
The field of 156 players will play one round on the North and South prior to the 36-hole cut on Wednesday and Thursday. Yes, Wednesday. For the second year in a row, the PGA Tour is starting the tournament one day earlier than usual, allowing for a finish in primetime Saturday rather than during the NFL conference championship games on Sunday.
The Top 65 and ties who make the cut will play the South Course on Friday and Saturday.
Considering this amazing setting alongside the cliffs of La Jolla overlooking the Pacific Ocean, we know weather can play a role in the outcome. Early predictions call for cooler temperatures to start the day in the mid-40s and reaching the mid-60s in the afternoon. The wind is predicted to blow in the mid-teens. It probably will get a little breezier right on the water, but as of now, nothing too penal.
The tournament forecast looks dry for the week, but California has been hit extremely hard by wet weather recently. According to the facility’s director of agronomy, Devin Cullen, the courses are very soft and will play longer than usual. Since length was already a key to contend, let’s take a closer look at why power is essential at Torrey.
The PGA Tour average for approach shots over 175 yards is 40%. Torrey’s South Course will ask you to handle a long iron more than 47% of the time. As a result, players only hit 62% of their greens in regulation. This is below tour average. Accuracy alone on approach isn’t the only key. Hitting fairways only happens 53% of the time. These consistent demands put a great deal of pressure on the short game and putting.
Since the start of 2023, these guys have launched drives in paradise with wide fairways in Kapalua. They took advantage of short par-4 scoring in Honolulu. Last week, they attacked every scoring opportunity in Palm Springs. As you can see, Torrey is a different test. Thirty-five of the Top 50 players in the world want in to test themselves.
I bet we will fare better than them with this week’s Win, Place, and Show.
Xander Schauffele is from Southern California, but the reasons to bet him this week run much deeper than that.
Andy Abeyta/USA TODAY Network
Six of the last 10 winners at the Farmers have come in with odds under +2500 (25-1). Although I’m not ready for a single-bullet strategy on Rahm, I will lean heavily toward the top of the board on my betting card. Xander Schauffele (+1200 SI Sportsbook) has the well-rounded skill set needed to win at Torrey. Forget the familiarity being from Southern California, he comes in ranked first in the field in strokes-gained tee to green and approach. That amazing combination of power and accuracy is what Torrey demands. In 2021, Xander finished second at Farmers and seventh at the U.S. Open. Last week at the Amex, he closed with 62 and finished third. If anybody can compete with Rahm on this course, it is the X-man.
Last week’s pick: Tony Finau finished T16 at The American Express, solid but six shots behind Rahm.
In his last nine starts, Taylor Montgomery has finished outside the Top 15 once. He gained positive strokes off the tee, on approach and on the green last week in the desert. His ability to putt will separate him on a difficult course like Torrey Pines. Take Taylor to finish in the top 20 one more week at +130 on SI’s sportsbook.
Last week’s pick: Si Woo Kim finished T22, agonizingly one shot out of the top 20.
This week’s showdown pick is J.J. Spaun (-110 at PointsBet) over Cam Davis (-125). Books have been favoring Davis since his showing at the Presidents Cup. He just missed the cut at the Amex and finished 32nd at the Sony Open. Spaun hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in his last four starts dating back to November. J.J. hits more fairways, is better at avoiding bogeys, and gains more GIRs, all skills that will differentiate him this week over Davis.
Last week’s pick: Jason Day (T18) cashed over Rickie Fowler (T54), keeping Keith unbeaten in showdowns.
Jon Rahm +400
Tony Finau +1200
Xander Schauffele +1200
Collin Morikawa +1400
Justin Thomas +1400
Will Zalatoris +1600
Jason Day +2000
Max Homa +2000
Sungjae Im +2000
Taylor Montgomery +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Maverick McNealy +3000
Si Woo Kim +3300
Sahith Theegala +4000
Harold Varner III is a winner on the LIV Golf League. The 32-year-old won for the first time since the 2022 PIF Saudi International at the 2023 LIV Golf Washing
When Harold Varner III left the PGA Tour for LIV Golf, he was refreshingly honest about his reasons for taking the guaranteed money from the Greg Norman-led and
May 28, 2023, 07:07 PM ETSTERLING, Va. -- Harold Varner III won his first LIV Golf event Sunday when he two-putted from about 35 feet for birdie on the par-5 18
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