Pato O’Ward has been knocking on the door of an Indianapolis 500 victory during his short career, finishing sixth, fourth and second. He will start fifth in the 2023 Indianapolis 500 starting grid on Sunday, the same spot as last year’s winner, Marcus Ericsson. O’Ward is the 5-1 favorite in the 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds at Caesars Sportsbook, while Ericsson is an 11-1 longshot. Should you include either of them in your 2023 Indianapolis 500 bets? Other 2023 Indy 500 contenders include Alex Palou (23-4), Scott Dixon (7-1) and Alexander Rossi (9-1).
Palou is starting on the pole for Sunday’s race at 12:45 p.m. ET, but the pole-sitter has only won this race once in the last 13 years. Before scouring the 2023 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2023 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure’s model is off to a red-hot start in NASCAR this season, already nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). In Austin, it listed Tyler Reddick as one of its best values and he went on to win for a 10-1 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 12 winners since 2021. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2023 Indianapolis 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2023 Indy 500 leaderboard.
One surprise: the model is high on Colton Herta, even though he’s a 20-1 long shot in the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. He is an up-and-coming star in the sport, becoming the youngest driver to win an IndyCar Series race and pole. Herta is also a two-time Rolex 24 at Daytona class winner and has posted a trio of top-10 finishes this season.
The 23-year-old had a difficult 2022 season, which has created value on him as a longshot early in the 2023 campaign. He already has one top-10 finish at the Indy 500 during his career and has a strong shot to contend again this week. His father, Bryan Herta, is a former driver who raced at Chip Ganassi, Team Rahal, Forsythe and others, securing a pair of victories at Laguna Seca. See who else to back at SportsLine.
And a massive shocker: Pato O’Ward, the Vegas favorite at 5-1, stumbles big-time and doesn’t even crack the top five. O’Ward was the 2020 Indy 500 Rookie of the Year after finishing sixth and has improved his performance each year. But after leading for 26 laps in last year’s race, and being even with Ericsson entering turn one on the final lap, O’Ward finished second.
That second-place finish would be a harbinger of the 2023 IndyCar Series, as O’Ward has three runners-up but no victories. He’s failed to win over his last 10 races, but Arrow McLaren’s drought extends much longer at The Brickyard. O’Ward’s team has never won an Indy 500, despite having 45 starters since 2001. O’Ward always finds a way to be in contention, but history isn’t on his side in terms of winning on Sunday. There are far better values in the 2023 Indy 500 starting grid. See which other drivers to avoid at SportsLine.
The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 Indy 500 odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Indy 500 2023? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2023 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2023 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted 12 winners since 2021.
See full 2023 Indy 500 picks at SportsLine
Pato O’Ward (5-1)
Alex Palou (23-4)
Scott Dixon (7-1)
Alexander Rossi (9-1)
Rinus VeeKay (10-1)
Marcus Ericsson (11-1)
Takuma Sato (11-1)
Felix Rosenqvist (12-1)
Josef Newgarden (14-1)
Scott McLaughlin (15-1)
Santino Ferrucci (15-1)
Will Power (16-1)
Tony Kanaan (17-1)
Colton Herta (20-1)
Kyle Kirkwood (25-1)
Conor Daly (30-1)
David Malukas (40-1)
Romain Grosjean (45-1)
Graham Rahal (50-1)
Simon Pagenaud (50-1)
Ed Carpenter (50-1)
Helio Castroneves (55-1)
Ryan Hunter-Reay (60-1)
Marco Andretti (60-1)
Benjamin Pedersen (75-1)
Christian Lundgaard (100-1)
Jack Harvey (200-1)
Agustin Canapino (250-1)
Callum Ilott (250-1)
RC Enerson (300-1)
Devlin DeFrancesco (300-1)
Katherine Legge (300-1)
Sting Ray Robb (300-1)
Row 1- Scott Dixon, Rinus VeeKay, Felix Rosenqvist
Row 2- Santino Ferrucci, Pato O’Ward, Scott Dixon
Row 3- Alexander Rossi, Takuma Sato, Tony Kanaan
Row 4- Marcus Ericsson, Benjamin Pedersen, Will Power
Row 5- Ed Carpenter, Scott McLaughlin, Kyle Kirkwood
Row 6- Conor Daly, Josef Newgarden, Ryan Hunter-Reay
Row 7- Romain Grosjean, Hélio Castroneves, Colton Herta
Row 8- Simon Pagenaud, David Malukas, Marco Andretti
Row 9- Devlin DeFrancesco, Agustín Canapino, Callum Ilott
Row 10- R. C. Enerson, Katherine Legge, Christian Lundgaard
Row 11- Sting Ray Robb, Jack Harvey, Graham Rahal
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