The 2022-23 Philadelphia 76ers season is the 40th anniversary of the last Sixers Championship. And it’s now been over 20 years since the last Sixers NBA Finals appearance. However, hope springs eternal in the City of Brotherly Love, so maybe the 2023 NBA Finals is where the Sixers finally get back to the top of the NBA mountain. The only problem is, there are (at least) three reasons the 76ers won’t win the 2023 NBA championship.
3. Sixers coach Doc Rivers isn’t that good
Glenn “Doc” Rivers is an NBA legend. He had a 14-year NBA career, made an All-Star team, and won an NBA championship as a head coach. No one can take that away from the Sixers sideline general.
The burning question is, though, is Rivers a good coach?
Rivers has been the boss on an NBA sideline in 23 NBA seasons prior to 2022-23. He has a 1,043-735 regular season record and a 204-104 postseason mark. And his teams have made the playoffs in 18 of those 23 seasons.
Doc Rivers talks with James Harden following practice pic.twitter.com/hsmYReiCsb
— Rob Perez (@WorldWideWob) September 29, 2022
If you take away the five seasons, he coached the Hall of Fame triumvirate of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen, the numbers start to not look quite as good. His regular season record drops to 770-614, which makes his career record go from 154 games over .500 to 78.
Taking away those years with three of the biggest stars in the NBA at the time also leaves Rivers without his two Finals appearances and one NBA championship.
A Sixers championship in the 2023 NBA Finals would mean that Doc Rivers would have to do one of his best coaching jobs ever and do something he’s never done without Pierce, Garnett, and Allen. That seems like a stretch.
2. Former superstar James Harden is washed
No matter what the eventual outcome is, the Sixers trading Ben Simmons to the Brooklyn Nets for James Harden is — and always will be — completely defensible for both sides. There was never a path back to the team for Simmons, and Harden was completely done in Brooklyn.
Although the trade had to happen, it doesn’t mean it’s ultimately good for the Sixers’ championship prospects.
Since Harden’s last full season with the Houston Rockets, he’s played 109 games, and his scoring average has dropped from 34.4 points per game to 22.2. He also led the NBA in win shares five of his last six full seasons with the Rockets but finished 24th in WS in 2020-21 and 22nd in 2021-22.
The eye test can also tell you what you need to know about Harden. The one-time NBA MVP has lost a step, his three-point shot fell off last season, and rule changes mean NBA referees are no longer giving Harden foul calls every time he gets to the basket.
You can see these eye test issues in the numbers as well. As a career 44% three-point shooter, Harden dropped to 41% (and 40.2% with the Sixers). And after leading the NBA in free throw attempts in seven of eight years in Houston, Harden’s free throw attempts are down three to four per 100 possessions from his all-time high.
Joel Embiid needs a superstar running mate to have a Sixers NBA Finals appearance. Unfortunately for Sixers fans, James Harden is no longer that guy.
1. MVP candidate Joel Embiid gets injured
While James Harden might no longer be a superstar, there is no question Joel Embiid is that guy.
The Sixers big man could have (and really should have) won the NBA MVP last season, and, at 28, there is no reason to think he won’t challenge for that award again in 2022-23 … if he stays healthy.
Joel Embiid sounded off on the MVP conversation 👀 pic.twitter.com/UKTnimji61
— ESPN (@espn) April 4, 2022
Yes, sorry Sixers nation, but any discussion of the Sixers’ NBA Finals hopes has to include a conversation about Embiid’s health.
Embiid is the Sixers franchise in 2022, “The Process,” if you will. Whether Doc Rivers can coach or James Harden can score, or Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle can develop into bigger stars, Embiid is the most important piece of a potential 2023 NBA Finals team.
No Sixers fan wants to or needs to rehash Embiid’s injury history all that much. But the unavoidable truth is this: the NBA’s most dynamic big man has missed 308 games since the Sixers drafted him No. 3 overall in 2014.
When Embiid is healthy, he’s fantastic. And the good news is that last year he played a career-high 68 games. The biggest impediment to a Sixers championship these days, though, is a Joel Embiid injury, and history tells us that happens more seasons than not.
Embiid is already on his way to being an all-time great, and he deserves to play in the 2023 NBA Finals after all he’s been through. That said, with question marks on the bench, with his No. 2, and with his own health, a 2023 Sixers championship just isn’t in the cards.