When you’re the worst league in the team, there’s nowhere to go but up. At least that’s what the Bears hope for the 2023 season. The team is trying to rebound from a dismal 3-14 season in 2022, the first in Ryan Poles’ and Matt Eberflus’ to tear down then rebuild the roster to fit their vision.

The Bears didn’t break the bank in free agency, but didn’t sit completely on the sidelines either. Big additions, like Tremaine Edmunds, will move the needle in the right direction. Others, like T.J. Edwards and Nate Davis should help to elevate the floor. But how much will these moves really help the Bears? According to a former PFF data scientist, they’ll help a whole lot. As in, more than any other team in the NFL.

Cole’s Improvement Index aims to measure how much better or worse a team’s point differential will be, based on the the players they add to their roster and the players they lose. It adds assumptions based on players’ past performances, head coach tendencies, upcoming schedule and more. Based on how the offseason has shaken out so far, Cole’s Index thinks the Bears’ differential will be nearly 40 points better next season. The Texans come in second at just over 30 points better.

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At first that sounds incredible. A 40 point swing, most in the league, is no small thing! But when you take that number and add the context of where the Bears were in 2022, it’s less exciting. Last season, the Bears finished dead last in the NFL, with a -137 point differential. A 40-point improvement still puts them at -97. Using last year’s numbers, -97 would only bump them up one place to 31 of 32.

The Bears still have a long way to go before their roster is set, however. There will be more waves of free agency that pick up, and the Bears will sign more veterans. They also have 10 picks in the draft, so they’ll have multiple opportunities to add impactful rookies. There’s plenty of time for that Improvement Index number to improve even more. But the reality is the Bears still have plenty of work to do before they’re ready to compete in the postseason.

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