C.J. Stroud didn’t waste any time becoming one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks for the Texans. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 draft was a Pro Bowler, MVP candidate, and AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. Although his play and numbers haven’t been quite as good in Year 2, he remains a winning leader for a 6-2 Houston team.
Stroud is somewhere in the higher range between solid and spectacular. He is the clear standout of once-promising ’23 QB class with fellow top-five picks Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson already being benched and second-rounder Will Levis hampered by s a shoulder injury.
That puts Stroud in a similar position to what happened with Trevor Lawerence, the Jaguars’ No. 1 pick in 2021. The four other first-round QBs in that class — Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones — all busted with their original teams and are all now with new teams. That left Lawrence getting a near top-market deal of $275 million over five years, with $200 million guaranteed and an average annual value of $55 million. That AAV ties for him second in the league with Joe Burrow and Jordan Love, just behind Dak Prescott.
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Prescott is the highest-paid NFL QB and player overall after signing his second veteran contract with the Cowboys before the season, with $60 million in AAV and $231 million guaranteed.
Like Lawrence as the first overall pick in 2021, Brock Purdy is sitting pretty as the last overall pick in 2022, going from Mr. Irrelevant to the preeminent QB in that class. That sets up a nice progression to Stroud.
Here’s looking at what Stroud’s next QB will the Texans might look like in less than two years from now.
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Stroud, by nature of his No. 2 overall draft status in 2023, was slotted for a four-year, all-guaranteed deal worth $36.279 million. That AAV puts him at just more than $9 million a season. His cap hit is $8.245 million, which will escalate to $11.543 million should he play out the final year of his contract without an extension in 2026.
Stroud has outperformed his bargain initial contract. There’s no doubt the team would also activate the club’s fifth-year option to 2027 if needed, but all signs point to having no issues breaking the bank for him should he remain healthy and keep up his high floor of performance.
Purdy is the next man up for a mega QB contract in 2025. With Prescott setting the new bar and Purdy having outplayed his draft position like no quarterback has done before, he is headed to earn more than $300 million over 5 years to ensure a higher AAV than Prescott.
Prescott jumped to $60 million AAV after Burrow, Lawrence, and Jordan Love hit the $55 million mark. Should Purdy make $61-$62 million, then Stroud would be headed to be the highest-paid QB and NFL player overall with $65 million a season.
Stroud should follow Prescott and set himself up for a second lucrative extension earlier and push for a four-year deal, which would be worth $260 million, but it’s more conventional for the Texans to give $325 million over five years to Stroud.
Then it comes to guaranteed money. Based on the recent contracts, Stroud should get 70-80 percent of his deal guaranteed, That points to maxing around $260 million, or almost $20 million more than Prescott.
Stroud won’t enjoy the mantle of “highest-paid” for long, as that will be a battle between the top two QBs in the 2024 draft, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, but he deserves that temporary title for his immediate strong play as the much-needed new franchise passer in Houston.