Novak Djokovic remains on course to break Steffi Graf’s all-time rankings record, but is there any chance that either Carlos Alcaraz or Stefanos Tsitsipas can delay the inevitable?
Tennis great Djokovic started his 376th week at No 1 in the ATP Rankings on Monday, meaning he is now just one week shy of Graf’s 377 weeks as No 1 – a combined all-time ATP and WTA record.
He will draw level with fellow tennis legend Graf next week even though Alcaraz and Tsitsipas will both be in action this week and Djokovic himself will be on the sidelines.
Djokovic started the week of February 13 on 7,070 points with Alcaraz on 6,730 and Tsitsipas on 5,940.
After missing the Australian Open due to a hamstring injury, Alcaraz will finally make his 2023 debut at the Argentina Open this week where the winner will only pick up 250 points.
At the same time last year, Alcaraz played at the Rio Open and he went all the way as he defeated Diego Schwartzman in the final to earn 500 points.
So Alcaraz will lose 500 points from the 2022 tournament this week and the maximum he can pick up is 250, which would put him on 6,480 come next Monday – 590 adrift of Djokovic’s tally.
Tsitsipas, meanwhile, competed in the ATP 250 Open Sud de France at the same stage last year and he lost in the quarter-final so he will only lose 45 points this week and could pick up 500 points if he goes all the way at the ATP 500 Rotterdam Open.
A title win in the Netherlands will see Tsitsipas move to 6,395, but still 675 points shy of Djokovic’s 7,070.
That means Alcaraz and Tsitsipas can’t prevent Djokovic from drawing level with Graf’s 377 weeks at No 1 when the rankings are updated again on February 20.
The Dubai Tennis Championships (500 points), Mexican Open (500 points) Chile Open (250 points) were the corresponding tournaments on the ATP Tour calendar in the third week of February in 2022.
Djokovic played in Dubai and lost in the quarter-final so he will drop 90 points and move to 6,980 points, Tsitispas played in Acapulco and reached the semi-final so he will lose 180 points while Alcaraz has no points to defend as he missed the Mexican event.
This year the Rio Open (ATP 500), Open 13 Provence (ATP 250) and Qatar Open (ATP 250) are the three events that start on February 20 and Alcaraz will be the only one in action as he will play in Brazil.
If the Spaniard does end up winning both the Argentina Open and Rio Open, then he will move to 6,980 points, putting him level on Djokovic with 6,980 points.
When two or more players have the same total number of points, ties shall be broken as follows:
1) the most total points from the Grand Slams, ATP Tour Masters 1000 mandatory tournaments and Nitto ATP Finals main draws, and if still tied, then,
2) the fewest events played, counting all missed Grand Slams, ATP Tour Masters 1000 tournaments they could have played (as described under A. above) as if played, and if still tied, then,
3) the highest number of points from one single tournament, then, if needed, the second highest, and so on.
We would usually read no further than the Grand Slam criteria as Djokovic has won Wimbledon and the Australian Open in the past 12 months (the rankings are based on a 52-week rolling period). However, no points were awarded at Wimbledon last year. Djokovic also reached the French Open quarter-final while he missed the US Open.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, won the US Open, reached the French Open quarter-final and missed this year’s Australian Open.
Next up is the ATP Masters 1000 events and Alcaraz won the Miami Open and the Madrid Open while Djokovic only won the Italian Open.
By our permutations – and we could be wrong – that would put Alcaraz at No 1, but it does come with a heck load of ifs and buts.
And even if Alcaraz does manage to pull it off, there is little doubt that Djokovic will eventually get that all-time record.
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