CFB bowl projections: 14 games this week could vault 5-win teams into bowls

Posted by Admin November 22, 2022 Football

Survivor Saturday ruined a few seasons for multiple College Football Playoff contenders, like Tennessee and North Carolina, and further solidified a few other teams, like TCU and USC. But with two weekends left, anything is possible for both the CFP and for bowl lineups.

Currently there are 74 teams eligible for bowl games. Tonight, the winner of Miami-Ohio vs. Ball State becomes No. 75. This week, there are 14 other games that could vault five-win teams into the postseason. They range from Florida Atlantic (5-6) beating Western Kentucky (7-5) at home to Auburn (5-6) winning at Alabama. In reality, only a few of those games will send the victors to the postseason.

We project only 80 bowl-eligible teams this year. When it comes to a five-win team earning a bowl bid, it’s all about their APR (Academic Progress Rate). The top two projected five-win teams based on APR are Rice (currently 5-6) and UNLV (currently 4-7). But if Missouri (5-6) beats Arkansas (6-5) or Michigan State (5-6) beats Penn State (9-2), they’ll go bowling, too.

Reminders:

Most bowls do not have to select in strict order of conference standings. “Big 12 No. 3” means third choice, not third place. The SEC office plays matchmaker with its bowls and schools.
Notre Dame can fill one of the ACC’s bowl spots.
ESPN Events owns and operates 16 of the 41 FBS bowls, most of them involving the Group of 5 conferences. They have latitude to move teams around to create interesting matchups. One we came up with: A Birmingham Bowl matchup of UCF and Coastal Carolina.
Bowls’ priorities range from TV audience to maximizing attendance. A team like Texas could generate sizable ratings but a motivated fan base like Kansas could swarm to a location in droves and help boost ticket sales and the local economy.

All times Eastern.

New Year’s Six

BOWL	DATE	TEAM	CITY	VIEWING
Orange	Dec. 30	Clemson (ACC) vs. LSU (SEC/B1G/ND)	Miami	8 p.m. ESPN
Sugar	Dec. 31	Kansas State (Big 12) vs. Tennessee (SEC)	New Orleans	Noon, ESPN
Fiesta	Dec. 31	No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 TCU	Glendale, Ariz.	4 p.m./8 p.m. ESPN
Peach	Dec. 31	No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 USC	Atlanta	4 p.m./8 p.m. ESPN
Cotton	Jan. 2	Alabama (at-large) vs. Tulane (at-large/G5)	Arlington, Texas	1 p.m. ESPN
Rose	Jan. 2	Michigan (B1G) vs. Oregon (Pac-12)	Pasadena, Calif.	5 p.m. ESPN

Remaining Bowls

BOWL	DATE	TEAMS	CITY	VIEWING
Bahamas	Dec. 16	Bowling Green (MAC) vs. North Texas (C-USA)	Nassau, Bahamas	11:30 a.m. ESPN
Cure	Dec. 16	UConn (ESPN) vs. UNLV (ESPN)	Orlando, Fla.	3 p.m. ESPN
Fenway	Dec. 17	Syracuse (ACC No. 9) vs. Memphis (AAC)	Boston	11 a.m. ESPN
New Mexico	Dec. 17	Wyoming (MWC) vs. Marshall (ESPN)	Albuquerque, NM	2:15 p.m. ESPN
LA Bowl	Dec. 17	Washington State (Pac-12 No. 6) vs. Boise State (MWC No. 1)	Inglewood, Calif.	3:30 p.m. ABC
Lendingtree	Dec. 17	Southern Miss (Sun Belt No. 5) vs. Middle Tennessee (C-USA/MAC)	Mobile, Ala.	5:45 p.m. ESPN
Vegas	Dec. 17	UCLA (Pac-12 No. 3) vs. Arkansas (SEC Nos. 3-8)	Las Vegas	7:30 p.m. ABC
Frisco	Dec. 17	BYU (ESPN) vs. Rice (ESPN)	Frisco, Texas	9:15 p.m. ESPN
Myrtle Beach	Dec. 19	Appalachian State (ESPN) vs. Liberty (ESPN)	Myrtle Beach, SC	2:30 p.m. ESPN
Idaho Potato	Dec. 20	Utah State (MWC) vs. Buffalo (MAC)	Boise, Idaho	3:30 p.m. ESPN
Boca Raton	Dec. 20	FAU (ESPN) vs. Miami-Ohio (ESPN)	Boca Raton, Fla.	7:30 p.m. ESPN
New Orleans	Dec. 21	Troy (Sun Belt No. 2) vs. UTSA (C-USA)	New Orleans	8 p.m. ESPN
Armed Forces	Dec. 22	Air Force (ESPN) vs. Houston (AAC)	Fort Worth, Texas	7:30 p.m. ESPN
Independence	Dec. 23	Louisiana* (Army) vs. SMU (AAC)	Shreveport, La.	3 p.m. ESPN
Gasparilla	Dec. 23	NC State (ESPN) vs. UAB (ESPN)	Tampa, Fla.	6:30 p.m. ESPN
Hawaii	Dec. 24	San Jose State (MWC) vs. Western Kentucky (C-USA)	Honolulu	8 p.m. ESPN
Quick Lane	Dec. 26	Minnesota (Big Ten No. 8) vs. Eastern Michigan (MAC)	Detroit	2:30 p.m. ESPN
Camellia	Dec. 27	South Alabama (ESPN) vs. Ohio (ESPN)	Montgomery, Ala.	Noon ESPN
First Responder	Dec. 27	Texas Tech (ESPN) vs. Fresno State (ESPN)	University Park, Texas	3:15 p.m./6:45 p.m. ESPN
Birmingham	Dec. 27	UCF (AAC) vs. Coastal Carolina* (SEC No. 9)	Birmingham, Ala.	3:15 p.m./6:45 p.m. ESPN
Guaranteed Rate	Dec. 27	Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 7) vs. Baylor (Big 12 No. 6)	Phoenix	10:15 p.m. ESPN
Military	Dec. 28	East Carolina (AAC) vs. Wake Forest (ACC No. 8)	Annapolis, Md.	2 p.m. ESPN
Liberty	Dec. 28	Kansas (Big 12 No. 5) vs. Cincinnati* (SEC Nos. 3-8)	Memphis, Tenn.	5:30 p.m. ESPN
Holiday	Dec. 28	North Carolina (ACC Nos. 2-4) vs. Utah (Pac-12 No. 4)	San Diego	8 p.m. Fox
Texas	Dec. 28	Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 4) vs. Mississippi State (SEC Nos. 3-8)	Houston	9 p.m. ESPN
Pinstripe	Dec. 29	Purdue (Big Ten No. 5) vs. Pittsburgh (ACC Nos. 5-7)	Bronx, N.Y.	2 p.m. ESPN
Cheez-It	Dec. 29	Oklahoma (Big 12 No. 3) vs. Florida State (ACC Nos. 2-4)	Orlando, Fla.	5:30 p.m. ESPN
Alamo	Dec. 29	Texas (Big 12 No. 2) vs. Washington (Pac-12 No. 2)	San Antonio, Texas	9 p.m. ESPN
Duke’s Mayo	Dec. 30	Maryland (Big Ten No. 6) vs. Duke (ACC Nos. 5-7)	Charlotte, N.C.	Noon ESPN
Sun	Dec. 30	Louisville (ACC Nos. 5-7) vs. Oregon State (Pac-12 No. 5)	El Paso, Texas	2 p.m. CBS
Gator	Dec. 30	Notre Dame (ACC Nos. 2-4) vs. Florida (SEC Nos. 3-8)	Jacksonville, Fla.	3:30 p.m. ESPN
Arizona	Dec. 30	San Diego State (MWC) vs. Toledo (MAC)	Tucson, Ariz.	4:30 p.m. Barstool
Music City	Dec. 31	Illinois (Big Ten No. 4) vs. Kentucky (SEC Nos. 3-8)	Nashville	Noon ABC
ReliaQuest	Jan. 2	Iowa (Big Ten No. 3) vs. South Carolina (SEC Nos. 3-8)	Tampa, Fla.	Noon ESPN2
Citrus	Jan. 2	Penn State (Big Ten No. 2) vs. Ole Miss (SEC No.2 )	Orlando, Fla.	1 p.m. ABC