Sizing Pottsie – 1pt Each Way – 20/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power & Betfair, 3 places)
Today I have a four point outlay but it is all from just one race and between two horses.
Firstly we have Fransham, this horse loves Wetherby and has won 5 times and been placed 3 times from 12 runs at the track.
Those five wins have come off marks of 117, 122, 125, 130 and 136 with all bar the latter being over hurdles. Today he races over hurdles off a mark of 128, which is 2lb below his last winning mark over hurdles and 8lb below his last winning mark over fences.
The two latest wins have come on Good to Soft and Soft ground, so today’s Soft ground should be ideal too.
His three runs here this season have all been over hurdles and have resulted in RPRs of 133, 131 and 131, so his mark of 128 should certainly be workable.
At 12/1, he looks overpriced to me.
The second and final selection, in the race and today is Sizing Pottsie.
This horse is becoming incredibly well handicapped and sooner or later, the returning to winning ways has to come.
At his peak, he was rated 157 over in Ireland and running in Graded company. As recently as April last year, he was rated 155.
He won a Grade 3, a Grade 2 and was runner up in another Grade 2 all on Soft or Heavy ground.
He then started off for David Pipe with an emphatic victory in a Novice Hurdle. He then backed that up by chasing home Tahmuras in a Listed Hurdle at Haydock, before that one went on to win the Grade 1 Tolworth.
David Pipe then tried him up in trip and also over fences and neither have worked out for the horse.
His chase mark has come down to 135 and his hurdle mark is even lower at 126!
In much calmer waters today, back in a 2m hurdle and off a drastically reduced mark, I’d be disappointed if he could not run a big race.
If either horse was to place, we would have solid enough return for our stake but we will have a lovely return if either was to win. I also wouldn’t put anybody off a bet on the reverse forecast!