The Dallas Mavericks and Indiana Pacers meet in Indianapolis for a cross-conference NBA matchup on Monday evening. Dallas is 36-39 overall and 14-23 on the road this season after a loss to Charlotte on Sunday. Indiana is 33-42 overall and 19-17 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in 2022-23. The Mavericks are on a back-to-back, leaving an uncertain injury report for Monday’s game. Tyrese Haliburton (ankle) and Myles Turner (back) are questionable for the Pacers, with Chris Duarte (ankle) ruled out.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Indianapolis. Caesars Sportsbook lists Dallas as the 1-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 234 in the latest Mavericks vs. Pacers odds. Before making any Pacers vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 24 of the 2022-23 NBA season a stunning 70-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Pacers and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Pacers vs. Mavs:

• Mavericks vs. Pacers spread: Mavericks -1
• Mavericks vs. Pacers over/under: 234 points
• Mavericks vs. Pacers money line: Mavericks -115, Pacers -105
• DAL: The Mavericks are 2-8-1 against the spread with no rest
• IND: The Pacers are 21-15 against the spread in home games
• Mavericks vs. Pacers picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Mavericks can cover 

Dallas is in the top eight of the NBA in offense this season, scoring with impressive efficiency. The Mavericks generate 115.7 points per 100 possessions, and Dallas is elite in taking care of the ball. Jason Kidd’s team commits a turnover on only 12.5% of possessions, a top-three mark in the NBA, and Dallas also keeps pressure on the opposition from beyond the 3-point arc. The Mavericks make 15.1 3-pointers per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and Dallas converts 37% of long-range attempts. 

Dallas is also highly efficient inside the arc, making 57% of 2-point shots, and the Mavericks average 25.7 free throw attempts per game. From there, Indiana’s defense has significant shortcomings this season. The Pacers are allowing 116.6 points per 100 possessions, and no team is worse at securing the defensive glass than Indiana. The Pacers grab only 68.6% of available defensive rebounds, and opponents average 15.4 second-chance points per game against Indiana.

Why the Pacers can cover

Indiana’s offense is electric in key areas. The Pacers lead the NBA with 18.4 fast break points per game this season, and Indiana is in the top six of the league in assists per game (26.8) and assist percentage (64.1%). The Pacers make 13.7 3-pointers per game, a top-eight figure in the league, and Indiana is soundly above-average in offensive rebound rate (28.4%) and free throw accuracy (79.2%). Indiana also has a rest advantage in this game, and Dallas has notable defensive issues. 

The Mavericks are giving up 115.7 points per 100 possessions this season, and opponents shoot 48.6% from the field against Dallas. The Pacers also have the edge when it comes to turnover creation defensively. Indiana forces more than 15 turnovers per game, including 7.8 steals per contest, while Dallas averages only 13.3 takeaways per game on defense.

How to make Pacers vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 247 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Pacers? And which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.