March is coming.
That’s it. That’s the lede.
Here once again is the correct order of the top 25 teams in college basketball:
Seth Davis’ Top 25 for Monday, Feb. 27
Dropped out: Virginia (10)
Almost Famous: Boise State, Duke, Florida Atlantic, Illinois, Iowa State, Michigan State, Nevada, Oral Roberts, Pittsburgh, UAB, West Virginia
• I can’t say I spend a ton of time reading the comments to my weekly rankings (the whole “please be kind” thing hasn’t quite taken hold there), but I couldn’t help but notice that last week a lot of Purdue fans were miffed that I put the Boilermakers at No. 9, a whopping four spots lower than where they ended up in the AP poll, while many others took exception to my ranking Indiana so high. The Hoosiers did lose at Michigan State Tuesday, but then they beat Purdue in Mackey Arena Saturday to complete the season sweep and validate my lofty opinion of them. The Hoosiers are probably still going to be ranked lower in the poll than where I have them, partly because many of my fellow voters place a bigger weight on a team’s entire body of work as opposed to how the team is playing right now. Which is totally fair. That’s the great thing about these rankings. It’s not just the decisions that are subjective, but the criteria as well. Based on what I’m seeing from Indiana, you’d be hard-pressed to convince me that there are 10 teams playing considerably better basketball right now.
• Marquette is this week’s biggest beneficiary of what I call the “law of accumulation.” Not only did the Golden Eagles win at Creighton — a team I’ve been raving about all season — but they followed that up with a home win over DePaul for the ninth win in their last 10 games. Marquette’s metrics have lagged for much of the season, and though they are starting to catch up (the Golden Eagles’ range of rankings is 12-21), but those numbers do not truly reflect where this team stands in the bigger picture. The Golden Eagles are entering the final week of the regular season with a two-game lead in the Big East standings, and they haven’t lost a bad game all year. That’s top 10 worthy in my book.
• Last week I had Virginia four spots below where it ended up in the poll. As it turns out, I actually overrated the Cavaliers, because they lost on the road at Boston College (by 15 points!) and North Carolina. Virginia had previously won close games over Duke, Louisville and Notre Dame, and now the Cavs have played their way off my ballot and sunk all the way to No. 39 on KenPom.
• I also ranked TCU a whopping 13 spots ahead of where it ended up in the poll last week. The Horned Frogs lost at home to Kansas and barely won at Texas Tech, so the jury is still out as to whether I’ve placed too much faith in them. The metrics sure think so (21-34), but those numbers are out of whack because of all the losses the Frogs sustained while they were missing players. They have two Quad 1 games this week — Texas at home, Oklahoma on the road — before the start of the Big 12 tournament.
• UConn’s metrics remain strong (5-19), and at this stage of the season we can’t keep saying it’s solely because of the Huskies’ hot start. This team has been propped up the last six weeks by playing the weak teams at the bottom of the Big East, but it also has good home wins over Marquette and Providence. They don’t have any Quad 1 games remaining, so we’ll get a better sense of just how good they are during the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden.
• Gonzaga helped itself by dominating Saint Mary’s on Saturday night. The Zags built a 19-point lead early in the second half, and though the Gaels made it interesting Gonzaga made a final push to win, 77-68, and earn a share of the WCC regular season title. We’ve all been remarking on how the Zags don’t have quite the same sizzle they’ve had the last few years, but aside from their hiccup at home against Loyola Marymount, all their losses have been high quality (Texas, Purdue, Baylor, Saint Mary’s). That’s why their metrics are super strong (7-10).
• Kansas State helped itself immensely by beating Baylor at home and Oklahoma State on the road. The Wildcats were pretty beat up by the Big 12 there for a while, and while you could make a case that their schedule warrants being ranked ahead of Saint Mary’s, the metrics say otherwise. Saint Mary’s’ range is 6-13, while Kansas State’s is 8-29. The Wildcats play Oklahoma at home and West Virginia on the road this week. Losses in either one of those games will hurt more than wins will help.
• I leaned into my recency bias in moving Maryland up eight spots. The Terrapins’ metrics (17-36) don’t quite reflect their standing on my ballot, but they have won eight of their last 10 and are locked in a four-way tie for second place in the Big Ten. My main concern with Maryland is its vulnerability away from home. Their only two road wins were over Louisville and Minnesota. So I’ll be curious how the Terps fare this week as they wrap up their regular season with winnable road games at Ohio State and Penn State.
• Creighton dropped six spots after losing three of its last four, including at Villanova on Saturday. Miami lost at home to Florida State, but given that the game was decided at the buzzer, and especially given that the Hurricanes were without starting guard Nijel Pack (lower leg injury), I wanted to leave the Hurricanes right where they were. Texas A&M suffered a Quad 1 loss at Mississippi State, and Xavier lost at home to Villanova by one point last Tuesday while it is still playing without Zach Freemantle (who is due back by next week at the latest). Not much adjusting to do there. Northwestern had to get dinged a little for losing at Illinois and Maryland, but the Wildcats are still a top-25 team. They’ll probably have to beat Penn State at home and Rutgers on the road to stay on my ballot next week.
• And hey, look who’s back! Kentucky made it easy to re-enter my rankings by following up its sweep of Tennessee with a Quad 1 win at Florida on Wednesday and then by running Auburn out of Rupp Arena on Saturday, 86-54. (By the way, I may be the only AP voter that has never ranked Auburn this season. Just sayin’.) That was Kentucky’s fourth straight win and its sixth in the last eight games. The Wildcats’ metrics (15-28) are not nearly as strong as Tennessee’s (2-11), but when you beat a team twice, and by healthy margins, you deserve to be ranked ahead.
GO DEEPER
Kentucky makes breakthrough with wire-to-wire romp over Auburn
• It came down to Tennessee, Illinois and Pittsburgh for my last spot. The Illini’s comeback win at Northwestern would have prompted a longer look if they hadn’t lost at Ohio State on Sunday, which snapped the Buckeyes’ nine-game losing streak. I know there’s a lot of consternation from Pittsburgh fans as to why the Panthers can’t crack the top 25 despite being alone in first place in the ACC. It’s a close call, but there’s a reason this team’s metrics are so awful (38-65). Pitt’s best wins were at Northwestern, Virginia at home, at NC State, and at North Carolina. In the last six weeks, the Panthers have lost to Florida State at home and at Virginia Tech. So it’s not an easy call, but I’ll say this — if Pitt wins its games this week at Notre Dame and Miami, I guarantee you that in this space next week, the Panthers will have a number next to their name.
(Photo of Indiana’s Miller Kopp: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
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