Nuggets 30-30 Heat, 7:50, 2nd quarter

Gordon gets called for traveling, which gives a crucial possession for Miami. Robinson finds Butler for a layup, give him an assist for that.

And Denver will call its first timeout of the game.

Nuggets 30-28 Heat, 8:12, 2nd quarter

Brown makes a basket. For the Heat, Duncan Robinson hits a three.

Nuggets 28-25 Heat, 9:09, 2nd quarter

We get a pause for some floor mopping action here before the game resumes. With the floor properly dry, Adebayo scores to briefly tie the game before Gordon hits yet another three.

Nuggets 25-23 Heat, 9:45, 2nd quarter

Jokić is back on the Denver bench, good news for them (and basketball fans in general). Gordon his another basket, going back-to-back.

Nuggets 23-23 Heat, 10:37, 2nd quarter

Gordon with a three-pointer. It’s a tied game again.

Nuggets 20-23 Heat, 11:33, 2nd quarter

The Nuggets began the game lethargic offensively and the Heat eventually figured out a way to take advantage of it. Story of what Miami has been doing all season long.

Uh oh, Jokić back to the locker room for the Nuggets, that could be huge. Lowry hits another shot to extend the Heat lead. They have to take advantage of this time when Denver is missing its MVP.

Nuggets 20-21 Heat, end of the 1st quarter

Jokić gets to the line, makes two free throws. However, at the buzzer, Butler hits a wild three-pointer! The Heat have a lead? The Heat have a lead!

The Nuggets looked like the best team on the floor until the final few minutes of the quarter, but somehow, a la “Rise of Skywalker,” Miami returned.

Nuggets 18-18 Heat, 41.1, 1st quarter

The Heat get a few stops, which is vital for their offense. Butler hits a jumper, Kyle Lowry hits a three-pointer and in a blink of an eye, it’s a tied game.

This is the Heat team that gave their opponents fits in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Nuggets 18-13 Heat, 1:31, 1st quarter

Butler with a jumper out of the timeout, Miami definitely needed that.

Nuggets 18-11 Heat, 2:06, 1st quarter

Bruce Brown finds the right place to hit a three-pointer and the Nuggets take their biggest lead in this low-scoring first quarter.

Miami takes their second timeout, they are being plagued by turnovers and poor offensive possessions.

Nuggets 15-11 Heat, 2:40, 1st quarter

Caleb Martin hits a two-pointer, not his usual three. On the other end, Jokić muscles his way to the basket and hits a floater.

Nuggets 13-9 Heat, 4:16, 1st quarter

Caldwell-Pope gets a steal and then gets fouled on the ensuing possession, putting him on the line. He makes one of two free throws.

Nuggets 12-9 Heat, 4:47, 1st quarter

Something to watch, it looks like Jokić landed on his foot and is playing with a slight limp.

Murray hits a step-back three. Nothing Miami’s defense could do about that. Butler hits his first field goal on the other end.

Nuggets 9-7 Heat, 6:30, 1st quarter

Murray scores immediately out of the timeout. The hand looks fine.

Nuggets 7-7 Heat, 6:55, 1st quarter

Time for a Heat counter-punch. Kevin Love hits a three-pointer. Jimmy Butler finds Adebayo by the basket for an easy shot. Tie game.

Jimmy Butler gets called for a foul and Miami takes a timeout.

Nuggets 7-2 Heat, 8:41, 1st quarter

Aaron Gordon gets to the line and makes one of two free throws. An early foul on Miami’s Gabe Vincent.

Nuggets 6-2 Heat, 8:59, 1st quarter

Kevin Love is called for a three-second violation, giving the Nuggets a technical free throw. Jamal Murray knocks it down.

Then Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hits the game’s first three-pointer.

Nuggets 2-2 Heat, 9:14, 1st quarter

Both of these teams are looking a little tired out of the gate.

This feels like the more likely outcome, but I’m feeling lucky.

Nuggets 2-2 Heat, 11:07, 1st quarter

Nikola Jokić, to nobody’s surprise, scores first for Denver.

Nuggets 0-2 Heat, 11:07, 1st quarter

Bam Adebayo scores first for Miami after two scoreless possessions.

Opening tip

National anthem

Laurana Strachan is singing today’s anthem. I’ve never heard of her before, but maybe the best anthem of the 2023 NBA finals so far. Crystal clear vocals, strong projection, very few “American Idol”-esque vocal fripperies. Reminded me of the late Tina Turner at times. 8/10.

Injury update

Maybe a break for the Heat, Jamal Murray will be playing with an injury on his non-shooting hand, suffering a nasty case of floor burn. We’ll see if this affects him at all.

Look at this fit! Nikola Jokić has absolutely no swag. No great basketball player has had less swag than him since the days of George Mikan. It’s kind of the most lovable thing about him.

Oh no, the commentators on ABC are agreeing with me about the Miami Heat pulling off a Game 4 upset. I am suddenly questioning my prediction.

Predictions

Well, I predicted that this series would go six games somehow, with the Heat winning a game that nobody had them winning. Well, I’m saying this is the game right here. The Heat feed off the home crowd’s energy to tie up the finals 2-2, although it feels like it will require overtime to get it done.

Could I be wrong? Well, I’ve predicted the winners correctly in the last three liveblogs but it could just be me getting a little too self-confident about my psychic abilities. Whether the case, you can send in your predictions here either via email (to hunter.felt.freelance@theguardian.com) or via Twitter (to @HunterFelt) and we’ll post them here.

Miami Heat starting lineup

PG: Gabe Vincent

SG: Max Strus

SF: Jimmy Butler

PF: Kevin Love

C: Bam Adebayo

No changes on either side it looks like unless I’m getting fed false information. Tyler Herro is still on the mend so it’s looking like Monday’s Game 5 would be the earliest possible time he could return for Miami. The Heat are hoping that won’t be an elimination game.

On the ABC pregame show, the commentators are comparing this Nuggets team to the Tim Duncan/Tony Parker San Antonio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors. It’s understandable after Game 3’s masterclass but let’s remember that this is the Nuggets’ first appearance in the NBA finals in franchise history. Let’s calm down before comparing them to historically great teams.

Denver Nuggets starting lineup

PG: Jamal Murray

SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF: Michael Porter Jr

PF: Aaron Gordon

C: Nikola Jokić

Head coach Michael Malone gave Michael Porter Jr a vote of confidence before today’s game despite the fact that he has been struggling mightily all season long. Obviously, he didn’t really hurt the results back on Wednesday.

Nikola Jokić

For pregame reading, I strongly recommend reading Aaron Timms on the greatness of Nikola Jokić. This might be the best piece of basketball writing I’ve read this year, although I’m clearly biased.

Preamble

Welcome to Game 4 of the NBA finals which will most likely determine what kind of series this will be. After their Game 3 demolition of the Miami Heat, momentum is now firmly on the side of the Denver Nuggets. More importantly, they just look like what they are on paper: the clearly superior team. Now, the Heat are in a 2-1 hole and, should they lose today, they will be a game away from elimination.

What’s scary for the Heat is that they hadn’t really seen the Nuggets at full capacity in this series until the second half of Wednesday’s Game 3. When it all came together for Denver, the results were beautiful on one end and ugly on the other. Nikola Jokić put together a stat line that had never been seen before, Jamal Murray led all scorers and Christian Braun had 15 points off the bench. It was all over by the end of the third quarter.

So now it will be on Miami to find a way to disrupt them as they did in Devner’s own building in Game 2. Playing at home will help, as would a huge scoring effort by both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The Heat have already beaten the Nuggets at home, something no other team has done. They will believe in themselves even if nobody else does.

If they can win today at home, this is a 2-2 series and there’s a path to victory for them. They will be in a much better position than some of us predicted they would be at this point of the series.

So, everything is on the line today, making this the most important game of the NBA season to this point. We’d love it if you sent us your questions and comments throughout today’s game to use throughout this liveblog. You can send them via email to hunter.felt.freelance@theguardian.com or tweet them to @HunterFelt.

It’s Game 4 of the NBA finals between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat at Kaseya Center, Opening Tip is scheduled to start at 7:30 pm EST—although experience tells me it will probably be closer to 7:40—but we’ll be back before then with predictions, starting lineups and other updates.

How to watch the NBA finals

Hunter will be here shortly. In the meantime here’s Andrew Lawrence’s column on the birthday boy Udonis Haslem, the longtime Miami Heat captain who turned 43 today and remains one of the team’s most essential leaders.