Nuggets vs. Heat Odds
The Denver Nuggets proved to be all the Miami Heat could handle in Game 3. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray turned in a historic performance as they each notched a 30-point triple double. In fact, that marked the first time in NBA history that two players had 30-point triple doubles in the same game.
The Nuggets are now up 2-1 and Miami will look to bounce back at home in Game 4.
The Heat, who were held to 94 points on 37% shooting, will need stellar performances from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. They’ll also need a role player to step up in the same way Caleb Martin did in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Here’s a look at how I will be betting Game 4 — a same game parlay backing on the Nuggets to have more offensive success.
NBA Finals Same Game Parlay
The Parlay: (+221)
- Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds (-132)
- Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 106.5 (-115)
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds
The Heat have shot 46.4% from the floor this postseason. They have shot equally well from beyond the arc (38.8%), which makes their Game 3 performance even more puzzling as the Heat couldn’t buy a basket. The Heat were getting decent looks from the floor, but weren’t able to capitalize.
Those struggles opened the door for the Nuggets to take advantage of Miami’s missed shots and pad their rebounding stats. Three Nuggets players grabbed at least 10 rebounds in Game 3 and that could happen again in Game 4.
Jokic going over any rebounding total has seemed like an automatic bet thus far this postseason. He’s averaging 13.4 rebounds per game this postseason and has only been held under 10 rebounds three times (18 games).
Taking all of that into account, his rebounding total seems a little low at 12.5. I’ll happily take the over.
Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 106.5
For the second play of this same game parlay, I’m looking to back the Nuggets’ offense. The Nuggets put up 109 points in Game 3, and that’s with a slow start and some struggles from the 3-point line.
The Nuggets were only able to total 24 first quarter points and struggled to get into an offensive rhythm early in the first half. They also struggled from beyond the arc, shooting just 5-of-18 from deep.
Despite those struggles, the Nuggets dominated inside and put up 60 points in the paint.
With the Heat likely implementing more zone defense (they have seen the most success this postseason when in zone), the Nuggets may be more inclined to take shots from deep. Denver also has numerous weapons capable of getting hot from beyond the arc.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Murray and Jokic all shot 38% or better from beyond the arc in the regular season, and we only need one of these to get hot to help aid the Nuggets in going over their team total.
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