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Nuggets vs. Heat Odds
NBA Finals Player Props
The Denver Nuggets regained their series lead on the road in Game 3 as Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic became the first teammates to record a 30-point triple-double.
With the Heat now in danger of playing their final home game in Miami and falling behind 3-1 in the series, their star forward Jimmy Butler needs to put together a legacy game tonight.
Butler finished Game 3 with 28 points on a series-high 24.0 drives (13.5 drives in the previous two) while only converting on 40.0% of his shots at the rim. Despite his foot injury impacting his game, his frequency was encouraging with 24 shots, and when Butler reaches the 20 field-goal attempt milestone, he has hit this prop in 12 of his 16 games.
Additionally, his usage continues to trend upwards, increasing from 18% in Game 1 to 27% in Game 2 to 32.6% in Game 3. Matching up with Aaron Gordon in isolation is not favorable by any means, but finding favorable switches and taking advantage of the Nuggets staying glued to Heat shooters could make driving to the bucket a bit easier.
Ultimately, this is a bet on his growing volume as Butler elevating his scoring will give the Heat a better chance of winning tonight. I expect the opportunities to be there, and I love the chances of him going over his points prop tonight at -110 odds on BetMGM. I would play this up to -130.
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