We are hitting the home stretch of the NBA regular season.
We have teams that are battling for seeding, we have teams that are battling to make the playoffs, and we have teams that are doing their best tanking impression in order to get a better chance in the Victor Wembanyama Sweepstakes.
There are six games on the schedule tonight and after scouring the PrizePicks lobby, I have found my four favorite selections for Monday night.
Rookies are typically volatile and that has been the case for Nembhard this season. However, he seems to be coming into his own late in the season.
With Tyrese Haliburton out the last four games, Nembhard has scored 22, 24, 15, and 19 points.
He’s surpassed his point projection in all of those games, and I like that streak to continue tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked sixth in pace and 21st in defensive rating this season.
Nembhard should have a high usage rate regardless, but it could be even higher if Chris Duarte and/or Bennedict Mathurin are also ruled out tonight.
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The Hornets traded Mason Plumlee and Mark Williams has missed the last four games with a thumb injury.
This has given Richards the chance to start and he’s been an elite rebounder in his limited action this season.
On a per-24 minute basis, he has averaged 7.8 rebounds. At RotoGrinders, we have him projected to play 28 minutes, which puts him in line for just over 10 rebounds.
The matchup also sets up well for him, as the Pacers are 28th in rebounding rate and this is a rare game where the Hornets aren’t large underdogs (1.5-point spread).
On the season, Robinson has averaged 7.5 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, which is almost identical to his projection on PrizePicks tonight.
However, he’s topped 16.5 points + rebounds in five of his last seven games.
He has been much more efficient since returning from injury and finds himself in a good spot this evening.
He’s playing at home against the Wolves, who are the fourth worst rebounding team in the league.
Robinson should spend most of his night in the paint, as Rudy Gobert rarely strays far from the rim.
We have to look for value at all times and the 44.5 fantasy point projection on PrizePicks feels a tad too high for tonight.
A matchup against the Jazz is awfully appealing, but we have Fox projected for 40 fantasy points over at RotoGrinders.
There is a big gap in those two projections, which creates value on the less than side of this pick.
There should be plenty of scoring in this game, but Fox has scored less than 44.5 fantasy points in five of his last six games.
Let’s go 4-for-4 tonight.
You can follow Derek Farnsworth on Twitter @RG_Notorious
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