Fourteen weeks of the NFL season are in the books, meaning just four weeks of regular season football remain. The playoffs are certainly in sight and as a result, playoff races across the league are heating up. The New York Giants and Seattle Seahawks have struggled down the stretch, opening the door in the NFC wild card race.
After opening the season with a 1-6 record, the Lions have won five of their last six games. They have a relatively favorable schedule down the stretch. However, they’re still 1.5 games out of the last playoff spot in the NFC. Can they complete their epic comeback or will they run out of time? Let’s take a look at the current playoff picture across both conferences and the betting odds surrounding each team’s hopes of getting in.
The Philadelphia Eagles became the first team in the NFL to clinch a playoff spot last weekend. Minnesota will clinch the NFC North with one victory over their last four games. The San Francisco 49ers can clinch the NFC West with a victory over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday. The 49ers are 3.5-point road favorites.
Sitting at 10-3, the Dallas Cowboys are also safe bets to get in. They’ll need a lot to go their way to win the division, but they will be in the playoffs unless there’s an epic collapse. That’s four of seven NFC playoff spots that seem rather locked in.
Of course, one of the final three playoff spots in the conference will go to the winner of the NFC South. Tampa Bay is a sizable -350 favorite to win the division, but Carolina certainly isn’t dead and currently holds a lot of key tiebreakers. Yahoo’s Frank Schwab takes a look at why Carolina might be worth a bet here.
After that, just two playoff spots remain in the conference. There are four main contenders to claim those spots. Two of them are surging at the right time and two of them are struggling at the worst time.
The Washington Commanders are -190 favorites to make the playoffs at BetMGM, giving them the best odds of the bubble teams. Washington plays a massive game on Sunday night this week against the New York Giants. Washington is a 4.5-point home favorite. Both teams are 7-5-1 and tied head-to-head just two weeks ago. The Commanders are coming off a bye week while the Giants are coming off a blowout loss to the Eagles.
The Commanders opened the season 1-4 but have gone 6-1-1 in their last eight games prior to the bye week. After the Giants, Washington has San Francisco, Cleveland and Dallas to finish the year. It’s a tough schedule, but if they take care of business as home favorites this weekend, they’ll be in a good spot.
The Seattle Seahawks are viewed as the next most likely team to make the playoffs, as they are -145 favorites to get in according to the odds. In mid-November, the Seahawks were 6-3 and looking good before a trip to Berlin. Since then, the Seahawks have lost three of four games with their lone win coming in the final seconds against a John Wolford-led Los Angeles Rams team. Seattle has the 49ers on Thursday and the Chiefs on Christmas Eve. They finish the season with home games against the New York Jets and Rams. Can they right the ship?
After opening the season with a 7-3 record, the New York Giants are now underdogs to make the playoffs at +115. New York is in the nation’s capital this weekend for the aforementioned meeting with the Commanders. New York still has trips to Minnesota and Philadelphia on the schedule as well. Their best chance for a victory comes against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17. New York will likely need to pull off some upsets down the stretch to get into the playoffs.
After the Giants, we get to the talk of the league in the Detroit Lions. The Lions have won five of their last six games and have looked very good in the process. They are a 1-point road underdog against the Jets this weekend. That might be the toughest remaining game on their schedule as they finish the year with games against the Panthers, Bears and Packers. It’s certainly not out of the question for Detroit to win out.
With the current form of the Giants and the Seahawks, maybe both teams completely collapse down the stretch and swing the door wide open for Detroit. However, it’s getting late and the Lions are still 1.5 games back of the playoff cut line. That’s why Detroit is a +240 underdog to get in. If the Lions get a big road win against a good Jets team this weekend and the Seahawks and Giants both lose as underdogs, it’ll create an epic final three weeks.
A similar situation is at play in the AFC with a bunch of teams competing for the final few wild card spots. Buffalo can go a long way in locking up the AFC East this weekend if they beat the Miami Dolphins as a 7.5-point home favorite. Kansas City can lock up the AFC West with a victory over Houston.
The Baltimore Ravens are slight -135 favorites to win the AFC North over the Cincinnati Bengals, but both teams are massive favorites to make the playoffs as they currently sit with matching 9-4 records. In the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans are still -600 favorites to win the division despite losing three straight games. Jacksonville is a +450 long shot to win the division.
Once again, that means we can comfortably pencil five teams into the playoffs meaning there are two spots remaining. Just like the NFC, there are four teams who are realistically fighting for those two spots.
Life comes at you fast in the NFL. Two weeks ago, the Dolphins were 8-3 and Tua Tagovailoa was a borderline MVP candidate. Now, Miami is 8-5 and people are once again debating if Tagovailoa is even good. Most importantly, the Dolphins are slightly at risk of falling out of a playoff spot.
Of the bubble teams, Miami still has the best odds of getting into the playoffs. They are -300 favorites to get in. However, there’s certainly questions now that Tua is struggling and teams have done a good job of quieting their receivers. Their schedule isn’t ideal either. They have cold weather games coming up in Buffalo and New England. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to see this come down to the Week 18 game where Miami hosts the Jets.
The next most likely team to get in according to the betting odds is the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers earned a huge victory as 3.5-point home favorites against the aforementioned Dolphins last weekend, and they’re in a good spot as a result. The Chargers host the Titans this weekend, who have lost three straight. Los Angeles is a 2.5-point favorite. The Chargers finish the year with matchups against Indianapolis, the Rams and Denver. The Chargers are -185 favorites to get into the playoffs, but nothing will ever feel safe or secure when it comes to this franchise.
Based on the odds, it appears oddsmakers think the Dolphins and Chargers have the inside track to claim the final two playoff spots in the AFC. However, the Jets and Patriots are still very relevant with their 7-6 records. The Patriots are +160 underdogs to get in while the Jets are +165 to squeak in.
New England still has Buffalo, Cincinnati and Miami on their schedule. It’s certainly a tough stretch to end the year. The Jets have a slightly more favorable schedule, but it’s still far from easy. The Jets finish with games against the Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks and Dolphins. There’s no certain losses on that schedule and there’s certainly no easy wins.
The Dolphins still have games against both the Patriots and Jets to finish the year. If they take care of business in those games, they’ll be a playoff team. However, if they continue to struggle against the teams chasing them, it’s going to be a heartburn-inducing finish.
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