With a massive storm making its way across the country this weekend, weather could impact a lot of games.
For this week we take a volume running back to score a touchdown, a running back to go Under a number that is a little too high considering the defense he’ll be facing and a quarterback, wide receiver and tight end to go Over numbers that are too low for their skill set, ability and opponent.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 16 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL Week 16 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:59 a.m. ET.
Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs SCORES A TD (-110)
– At Steelers, Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
Jacobs has carried the ball 21 or more times in each of his last 6 games, has 21 receptions in that same span and has scored 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games.
When you’re looking for a player you expect to score a touchdown, the first thing you look for from a running back is volume of touches. Jacobs checks all of the necessary boxes and is a good bet to get the ball at the goal line when the Raiders get close.
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Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 220.5 passing yards (-115)
– At Bears, Saturday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The weather is expected to be miserable in Chicago Saturday, but that is nothing unusual for Buffalo players.
Allen may have to shorten up some of his passes, but he has a receiver corps built for these types of games. He has a multitude of receiving options that have made playoff runs deep into January playing in conditions worse than he will experience in Chicago.
The wind and cold impacts a lot of teams adversely, but for the Bills, it’s just another day at the office.
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New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara UNDER 65.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Browns, Saturday 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Saints have been one of the more difficult teams to project because their offense can get mired down for long stretches of games.
The Browns defense has been able to be exploited at times on the ground this season, but with the lack of weapons due to injury, the defense is going to be keying on stopping Kamara first.
Kamara has had 12 or fewer rushing attempts in 5 of his last 6 games and each of his last 4 road games. In 6 road games this season, Kamara’s highest rushing total was 61 yards and it took 15 carries to get that. He will likely need 15 or more carries to hit this number and he hasn’t done that all season.
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 91.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Giants, Saturday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has admitted that he is aware that Jefferson is within reach of the all-time single-season receiving yardage mark and that the Vikings offense runs through him.
Jefferson has topped this number in 9 of his last 11 games and he has 39 receptions in his last 4 games.
He won’t need 10 catches to top 90 receiving yards, but he may get close to getting that many receptions as he has become this season’s version of Cooper Kupp in terms of catch volume and moving him all over the field and in motion to avoid double-teams.
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Commanders, Saturday 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Kittle has become a favorite target of QB Brock Purdy because a tight end is an inexperienced quarterback’s best friend.
Kittle has been very hit-and-miss this season and the Commanders have a strong pass defense. But with a number this low, it should only take 3 or 4 receptions to top 44.5 receiving yards and Kittle is coming off a week where he more than doubled this total, finishing with 93 receiving yards.
More NFL Week 16 picks and predictions
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