The Denver Nuggets would like nothing better than to grab a 3-1 lead in their best-of-seven series when they take on the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their NBA Finals series on Friday. After a disappointing Game 2 performance at home, Denver rebounded in a big way with a 109-94 win on Wednesday. The Nuggets (53-29), who were the top team in the Western Conference during the regular season, are seeking their first-ever NBA title. The Heat (44-38), the eighth seed in the East, are looking to win their fourth NBA crown, and first since 2012-2013. Denver leads the all-time series 40-35, and has won 11 of the past 13 matchups.

Tip-off from Kaseya Center in Miami is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 210.5. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. Larry tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS (61 percent). Those selections formed the basis of his SportsLine NFL best bets article, which finished 36-25-1. 

Hartstein also excels in MLB, college basketball and the NBA, especially when picking Denver Nuggets games. Over the past 100 Denver matchups, he is 59-38-3 against the spread (plus $1,725 for $100 players, every bet 1 unit).

Now, Larry has set his sights on Nuggets vs. Heat and just locked in his picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat: 

• Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Nuggets -3.5 
• Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 210.5 points 
• Nuggets vs. Heat money line: Nuggets -165, Heat +140 
• DEN: The Nuggets are 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games against a team with a winning home record 
• MIA: The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss 
• Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See pick at SportsLine

Why the Nuggets can cover 

Denver center Nikola Jokic continues his assault on the NBA record books. In Wednesday’s Game 3 win, Jokic scored 32 points, grabbed a season-high tying 21 rebounds and dished out 10 assists, becoming the first player in league history to accomplish that in an NBA Finals game. He also had two blocks and played a series-high 44 minutes and notched his 16th career playoff triple-double and the 10th of this postseason. In 18 playoff games, he is averaging 30.5 points, 13.4 rebounds, 10.1 assists and one steal.

Guard Jamal Murray also registered a triple-double in Game 3. He scored a series-high 34 points to go along with 10 rebounds and 10 assists. Jokic and Murray became the first teammates to record 30-plus point triple-doubles in the same game in the regular season or playoffs. Murray has registered at least a double-double in every game of the series. In 18 postseason games, he is averaging 27.4 points, 6.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.6 steals. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami will again look to even the series up behind the play of small forward Jimmy Butler. Butler has had a monster postseason, and is coming off a 28-point, four-assist and two-rebound performance in Game 3. He has scored 20 or more points in four of the past five games, including 21 points, nine assists and four rebounds in the Game 2 win in Denver. In 20 playoff games, Butler is averaging 27.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.8 steals.

Center Bam Adebayo was also a dominant force in Wednesday’s loss. In 41 minutes of action, Adebayo scored 22 points, grabbed 17 rebounds and dished out three assists. He has registered a double-double in four of the last five games. In 21 postseason games, he is averaging 17.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Hartstein is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Nuggets vs. Heat, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the expert who has returned over $1,700 to $100 players over his last 100 Denver Nuggets picks, and find out.