The aspiration at Luton Town is to always get better — not even a change in manager this season is showing any signs of derailing them.
Continual, steady progress is easier said than done, but careful planning and smart signings are paying off once again. From back-to-back promotions from League Two (2017-18 and 2018-19) to last year’s Championship play-off semi-final defeat under Nathan Jones to Huddersfield Town, the Premier League feels inevitable — not just achievable — on their trajectory.
Last season, people were impressed by Luton, but this season, they are wary. Fearful, even.
Luton have been good at what they do, making life difficult for the opposition with intense pressing, using their strikers in build-up play and playing fast and direct football for some time, but even after Jones departed for Southampton in November, they have continued to improve.
The Championship’s top eight
Position | Team | Played | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Burnley |
37 |
24 |
11 |
2 |
45 |
83 |
2 |
Sheffield United |
37 |
21 |
7 |
9 |
25 |
70 |
3 |
Middlesbrough |
37 |
19 |
7 |
11 |
23 |
64 |
4 |
Luton |
37 |
17 |
12 |
8 |
11 |
63 |
5 |
Blackburn |
37 |
19 |
4 |
14 |
1 |
61 |
6 |
Millwall |
37 |
17 |
9 |
11 |
9 |
60 |
7 |
Norwich |
37 |
16 |
8 |
13 |
11 |
56 |
8 |
West Brom |
37 |
15 |
10 |
12 |
8 |
55 |
Rob Edwards’ appointment, after he was sacked as manager by arch-rivals Watford two months earlier, could have been a bump in the road, not least for his own coaching career, but instead, it has proved another smart move from the decision-makers at Kenilworth Road, just like the signing of top-scorer Carlton Morris from relegated Barnsley last summer.
There have been minor changes in limited time under the League Two-winning coach formerly of Forest Green Rovers, with more shots from set pieces (26.3 per cent versus 20.63 per cent) and a greater share of possession (47.1 per cent versus 43.5 per cent) than under Jones in 2022-23, but continuity has been a strength.
“I’ve never taken over anywhere halfway through a season before, but what we’re doing is taking over something that’s working pretty well, a well-oiled machine,” Edwards said shortly after his appointment when appearing on the official EFL Podcast.
“A team that got in the play-offs last year… so this doesn’t need ripping up and starting again. It’s about continuing to do all of the really good things everyone does here — players and staff — and trying then to gradually evolve and improve. If Nathan had stayed here, he would want to gradually try to improve. That’s what we all want to do, to try to grow as players, people and coaches.”
One notable change has been Edwards’ use of the loan market compared to Jones. The January additions of Aston Villa midfielder Marvelous Nakamba and Leeds United right-back Cody Drameh are appearing more astute by the week.
More often than not, Edwards has retained Jones’ preference of starting with a back three and using two strikers. Luton have taken 13 points from their last five games and their recent 1-0 win over automatic promotion-chasing Sheffield United was an effective win, with Edwards using Morris, who has scored 16 league goals, and strike partner Elijah Adebayo in tandem to press Paul Heckingbottom’s side in possession, shutting down central areas and forcing them to play long.
“We always want to try and press and be aggressive,” said Edwards after Morris’ goal claimed all the points. “We changed things a little bit with our strikers and how we pressed. We made sure one could try and be around (Sheffield United’s Oliver) Norwood (in central midfield) more.
“We would normally press more with the two, so we adjusted the press to make sure our outside midfielders could press their outside centre-backs — it’s only a little tweak really, but we will always try to evolve and improve as a team.”
The average position map from Luton’s win over Sheffield United demonstrates how Edwards’ plan was executed, as Adebayo (No 11) is just behind Morris (No 9), with wing-backs Fred Onyedinma (No 23) and Drameh (No 2) in advanced positions to match up with their opponent’s outside centre-backs, John Egan and Jack Robinson.
Using width in this way has not just been effective as a means to disrupt the opposition, as against Sheffield United, but in creating chances under Jones and Edwards.
Another example is Luton’s second goal in their 2-1 win over Huddersfield Town in January, where centre-back Reece Burke is in the right wing-back position and first wins a header in his own half, then moves with the ball in a quick passing sequence between team-mates up the pitch.
Burke moves with the direction of play after first playing a one-two inside (above), then dropping the ball back to Allan Campbell, who moves play outside to James Bree, a creative force who left to join Jones at Southampton, via Cameron Jerome.
Luton’s ability to move the ball forward quickly and with confidence is mirrored in the data, which shows they are the fastest and most direct team in the league when attacking, with a direct speed of 1.91 metres per second and an average attacking sequence time of 5.56 seconds.
Here, in seven touches split among team-mates, Burke moved from inside his own half to score from 10 yards out. When Luton attack, they strike fast and with little interest in gently working an opening.
They have the lowest rate of passing sequences containing 10 or more passes in the league, with 70 in total. The next-closest team in this respect is Blackpool, with 77 sequences containing 10 or more passes, then Birmingham City with 83 which, given their respective positions of 18th and 20th at the other end of the table, shows how effectively the system of using pressing traps to trigger an attack is for Edwards’ side.
Luton rank fourth in the Championship for passes per defensive action (PPDA), which calculates how intensely a team presses by working out the number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team’s defensive third divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team, with their rating of 11.1 placing Edwards’ team behind only Burnley, Stoke City and Sunderland.
GO DEEPER
The Athletic’s football analytics glossary: explaining xG, PPDA, field tilt and how to use them
Luton’s approach paid off against Bristol City in midweek, with Morris scoring the only goal of the game early on after his team were able to win back possession after pressing well and stopping their opponents from playing out from the back.
Their 314 high turnovers (attacking sequences that begin after recovering the ball from open play 40 metres or less from the opponent’s goal) is the highest figure in the league, with West Bromwich Albion next-best on 296. All this makes for great ammunition for Morris, who has scored roughly once in every six shots on average according to StatsPerform.
Luton continue to do what has worked best for them with little fuss and an ability to make life difficult for the opposition while using that disruption to play to their own strengths.
Add to that the mental aspect of this team having been in the Championship play-off places for the best part of 18 months and they look a good bet to secure a place in the top six and another shot at the Premier League.
(Top photo: Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
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