We asked four of our favorite experts a series of questions about 2023’s buzziest topics: the Broncos offense, what to do with Calvin Ridley and Najee Harris, which QB they like as a sleeper and more.
Michael Salfino: He’s slid far down the draft board relative to 2022 for reasons that have nothing to do with age or injury. The Steelers were one of the best teams in throwing to running backs based on expected points added — and even volume. But Jaylen Warren supplanted Harris as a receiving back in 2022. Harris was drafted in the first round primarily for his projection as a receiving back. So is he a 35-catch guy or a 65-catch one? Probably the former. Harris is a classic dead-zone running back who you should avoid at ADP in favor of the best WR on the board.
Gary Davenport: Harris may never be an especially efficient back — he has yet to gain four yards a carry for a season. But he has at least 310 touches in both of his professional seasons, and he’s a good bet for a similar workload in 2023. He may not be an especially sexy pick, but last year’s RB14 finish in PPR points is closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Dominick Petrillo: Mike Tomlin is a loyal man. While this is good for Harris — who came down from 1200 rushing yards as a rookie to 1034 last season — it is bad when it also means the return of Matt Canada as offensive coordinator. With Canada returning to call the plays, another season of under 4.0 yards/carry is in store for Harris — and this makes him an RB10 to 15 for fantasy teams. I would not want him as my RB1, but he would make a great RB2 in an RB-heavy draft scenario.
Jake Ciely: The preseason concern of his Lisfranc issue last year was more than warranted, but Harris turned the corner after the Steelers’ bye. In the first eight games, Harris averaged 13.5 for 45.1 on the ground with 3.3 YPC and one rushing touchdown, averaging 9.7 FPPG. After the bye, Harris was 18.2 for 74.8 with 4.1 YPC, six rushing touchdowns and five games of 20-plus rushes (none before the bye) with 14.4 FPPG. All of that is to say I feel great about Harris returning to RB1 value, as 14.4 FPPG would have been RB9 last year.
Salfino: Aaron Rodgers sitting on the QB15 bubble is ridiculous. The guy had a broken thumb and inexperienced receivers in 2022. He’s also playing probably angrier than he was after Jordan Love was drafted, given the Packers decided he was no longer a top QB and opted to go with Love. I think his over/under is 35 TD passes. Rodgers was QB2 in 2020 and QB5 in 2021. This is all LOLJets bias and the history of teams means nothing in the NFL. The players are all new every year. So are many of the coaches. Heck, Rodgers was QB13 in 2022 with those handicaps. He also has the Offensive Rookie of the Year who excelled with poor QB play in 2022, Garrett Wilson, who I expect to be a top 5 fantasy WR.
Davenport: God help me, but I just can’t quit Russell Wilson. Wilson’s 2022 season was admittedly a disaster — he barely completed 60 percent of his attempts and threw just 16 touchdown passes. But even then, Wilson was a top 15 fantasy option in many scoring systems. The passing game weapons are there. If you believe that Sean Payton’s arrival could pave the way to a bounce-back season, then Wilson’s likely meager asking price in 2023 should mean value.
Petrillo: Aaron Rodgers is going off the board behind the illustrious likes of Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith. We know how Rodgers plays when he is mad. The last time he was mad, he ran off two MVP awards in a row. And now he has even more talent on offense with Wilson and Allen Lazard. On top of this, the Jets are a solid defense and will be able to get enough stops to give Rodgers more time on the field. While Rodgers does not run to the level he did as a younger player, he still has 40 TD potential — and if he gets there, he will return huge on the draft price tag.
Ciely: Desmond Ridder should get more attention. Yes, this team will be run-first, but the offensive line is underrated, Ridder was highly consistent in college, and he has the tools to be a mid-QB2 with Drake London, Kyle Pitts and additional weapons. It would take a high touchdown rate to near QB1 value, but we’ve seen quarterback surprises yearly. For all of the mid-QB2s in 2023, I’d rather take a flier on a breakout year from Ridder versus a highly-replaceable Derek Carr type.
Salfino: We’re flying blind with Ridley, who basically has missed two seasons. He was WR24 in spring NFFC drafts. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Jacksonville, which is good for Trevor Lawrence but bad for each of the receivers. This ADP is right. I can’t pound the table for taking Ridley. There is very little data for WRs who miss all this time in the middle of their careers.
Davenport: In Ridley’s last full season, he caught 90 passes, eclipsed 1,300 yards, scored nine touchdowns and finished as a top 5 fantasy option. The problem is that last full season came in 2020, and since then Ridley has played in just five games. Ridley has a WR1 ceiling — we’ve seen that. But there’s going to be rust to knock off, a rapport to develop with Lawrence and to start the season, at least, Ridley will play second fiddle to Christian Kirk, who was Lawrence’s Thunder Buddy in 2022. Off the top, I’d likely slot Ridley in midrange WR3 territory, but I expect hype to drive his ADP higher than that.
Petrillo: Lawrence will be the best QB Ridley has had in his career (Matt Ryan was not the vintage version while playing with Ridley) and Doug Pederson is a coaching upgrade, to put it nicely. While Ridley is not a Top 10 receiver, the likelihood he finishes inside the Top 20 is extremely high.
Ciely: It’s a long layoff, and I’m going back to something Tomlin said when asked about Le’Veon Bell returning from suspension: “There’s a difference between football shape and on-field/game day shape.” I think Ridley could start slow, but return to WR2 value. He looked to struggle as the No. 1 receiver for the Falcons in 2021 before his season was over, but the Jaguars have better surrounding talent and a supremely gifted quarterback. I’d draft him as a fringe WR2/3 with the hopes that he gets back to the Top 20 by October.
Salfino: Waller has the highest expected target volume but it’s been years since he was a top player. He’s also aging out of peak production irrespective of that. But he’s the de facto No. 1 receiver for the Giants. Engram has Ridley now siphoning off his targets. Engram is third or maybe fourth on the team’s list of receivers if we’re ranking by expected market share. I’d put Freiermuth last on this list as he has a decent floor but no ceiling. He’s the new Heath Miller. I would take a number of later TEs over Freiermuth: Dalton Schultz, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, Juwan Johnson. But the point is that I don’t have to. I can wait very long and take the last of them.
Davenport: Waller’s injury history is a concern, but he could be the de facto No. 1 receiver for the Giants in 2023, so he gets the top spot. Engram set career highs in receptions and yardage last year on the way to a Top 5 finish, and even if he backslides a little, he should remain a solid weekly starter. Freiermuth wasn’t that far behind Engram in fantasy points, but questions about the Steelers passing game relegate him to the back. With that said, there isn’t a ton of space separating this trio.
Petrillo: I would still take the talent of Waller over the other two. Although he has slowed a bit in recent seasons, the Giants are desperate for a talented pass catcher and this is what Waller provides. Evan Engram would be next after a strong change-of-scenery season with Jacksonville following four lackluster campaigns in New York. He is playing on the franchise tag and if he wants a long-term deal, he needs to prove himself again. Freiermuth suffers from the same chronic condition that Najee Harris does: Matt Canada. Until a cure is found for this problem, I cannot trust him over the other two players listed here.
Ciely: It’s all about health. Even with the Giants, it should be Waller, Engram, Freiermuth, but the risk of injury puts Waller in a conversation with Engram.
Salfino: If it’s binary, in. Just because of respect for Sean Payton. Russell Wilson can’t be as bad as he looked last year. Yes, he no longer has much juice athletically and has never been a timing/rhythm pocket passer. So he was a bad fit for a conventional West Coast offense. This is the greatest coaching challenge of Payton’s career. But I can’t bet against him. The prices are all depressed, too. I think Courtland Sutton could have a peak Michael Thomas-level of market share in a Payton offense. And Sutton is WR44 (102nd overall). I’d be targeting him there and maybe even earlier.
Davenport: Well, given that I mentioned Wilson as a potential value under center this year, I guess that means I’m “in” on Denver’s offense in 2023. It’s hard to make any definitive judgments on Javonte Williams until we get more info on the status of his rehab, but if Wilson does rebound this year, Jerry Jeudy and Sutton both stand to benefit. Going gaga on Denver Broncos may not be especially wise, but after last year, this offense really doesn’t have anywhere to go but up.
Petrillo: Out. We saw Wilson last season and I think this is more the new normal than it is a mirage. If he cannot even see a bunker in front of him on a golf cart, how is he supposed to find an open receiver downfield? I mean really, I could have driven the golf cart and not flipped it. (Note: Dominick is blind)
Ciely: Fully on board. I already stated that Wilson would start my “Last Year’s Trash” article as my favorite quarterback value, and Jeudy has one of the best YAC and Air Yards per Target combination stats. The only area I could be “out” for fantasy is the backfield with Williams a question mark and a split likely again.
(Photo: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
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