Picking one team that is a lock to win each week in the NFL is easy enough, right? Only being able to choose each team once throughout the season is where it gets complicated. The Week 1 NFL schedule is filled with marquee matchups and making the right call to ace your NFL survivor pool picks could be tougher than it seems at first glance. Only three Week 1 NFL spreads have a margin of seven points in the latest Week 1 NFL odds on Caesars Sportsbook. The Colts, 49ers and Ravens are all road favorites by a touchdown, and if any of them are your choice for Week 1 NFL knockout pool picks, you could be off to a fast start. Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions 

For Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Cincinnati Bengals, even though they are the reigning AFC champions and favored at home over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Super Bowl 30, runners-up have gone 10-15 overall and 7-18 against the spread in their season-openers the following year. When it comes to the Bengals and Steelers, Cincinnati has won and covered in each of the last three games, but Pittsburgh is 7-3 overall against the Bengals in their last 10 meetings.

The Steelers had question marks about their quarterback situation coming into 2022, but after the preseason, the team looked as though the offense could work with either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett running the show. Regardless, the Bengals should be concerned opening the season against a highly-motivated divisional opponent loaded with offensive talent. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow was the most-sacked QB in the league last year, and in nine games against the Bengals, Steelers defensive end T.J. Watt has 7.5 sacks and 12 QB hits. This is just too close of a matchup to consider the Bengals to start the year. See which team to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a team that made a quarterback change in the offseason and has had plenty of success against its Week 1 opponent. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL, and find out.